Are You Looking to Exit? The M&A Market is Ready for You.

Posted on June 16, 2015

Matt Porzio, Vice President of Strategy & Product Marketing for Intralinks has a unique perspective on the M&A market. Intralinks maintains the leading due diligence secure data room service in the world and, as such, has a window on a high percentage of global M&A activity as deals are being made.  Additionally, Intralinks offers a global deal networking service, DealNexus, through which thousands of buyers are provided a window on available offerings, particularly in the middle market. Using this unique position Intralinks publishes quarterly its Deal Flow Predictor gauging future M&A announcements based on the trends its sees in the usage volume of its services.  Matt’s observations on the current M&A market are presented below.

The M&A market for 2015 is looking bright – kicking off with a stellar start. According to Thomson Reuters, Q1 2015 saw over $854 billion in activity – the strongest quarter since 2007. Mid-market (deal valuation up to $500 million) deal volume was at $188.4 billion, with a year over year increase of 6.2 percent. From all indications, M&A will continue to be a leading growth strategy for companies, with rich exit multiples.

Multiple deal drivers are contributing to this rich environment, including activist pressure on strategics to tighten up balance sheets/refocus on core business lines.  Distressed sectors such as oil & gas are bringing a sizeable number of mid-cap deals to market, and the strongest volume of Q1 cross border activity since 2007. Financial sponsors, with plenty of dry powder, are also out to market in full force. According to Thomson Reuters, Q1 saw $171.3 billion in sponsor-backed deals – again the highest volume since 2007.

With financial sponsors coming in with plenty of dry power, deal-makers entering this space must have deep pockets and creative earn-out mechanisms in place in order stay competitive in any M&A situation. … read the rest

Categories: Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Investment Banking, M&A, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Middle Market, Private Equity, Valuation

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IS THE M&A BUBBLE ABOUT TO POP?

Posted on April 20, 2015

(Originally Published on Axial Forum)

The answer may surprise you, but first a bit of background. There have been signs of financial bubbles throughout global markets: US price/earnings multiples are relatively high, the Chinese equity market is on a tear notwithstanding signs of an economic slowdown, M&A valuations remain near record levels and so on. But, that’s not the whole story.

What is a bubble anyway, you might ask? The simple answer is a bubble occurs when the price of an asset class is bid far beyond its real economic value, typically as a result of mass hysteria, delusion, or misinformation. Bubbles tend to last longer than rational investors anticipate, which is why most short sellers don’t wind up billionaires.

You don’t have to look hard to find recent examples of burst bubbles. Oil is down more than 50% from its 2014 peak. Its drop was even sharper in 2008-2009 when it dropped 65% from peak to trough. Gold, the sure fire inflation hedge, is down almost 40% from its 2011 peak and could still be in a downtrend. These were big events reflecting what has been called the end of the commodity super cycle. Yet both the global and U. S. economies continue to grow.

Many claim that the U. S. equity markets are in a bubble. Yet there is little evidence of any large-scale delusion that is typically associated with market highs. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the S&P 500 has only now returned to its peak level reached 15 years ago at the height of the Dot Com boom and the inflation-adjusted NASDAQ remains almost 28% below its 2000 peak.

While excess leverage can potentially cause future pain, I would argue that the current M&A leverage and resulting high valuations are a realistic response to the “new normal” of very low … read the rest

Categories: Economics, Federal Reserve, M&A, Mergers and Acquisitions, Private Equity, Valuation

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Knowing When to Fold ‘Em

Posted on August 26, 2014

You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done

If you’re a Baby Boomer, you remember well hearing Kenny Rogers’ iconic hit, The Gambler.  If you’re like me, you’ve often wondered how Kenny’s advice might be applied to important business and investment decisions.  If you’re a business owner who has survived our generation’s version of the Great Depression, you need good counsel more than ever.

Perhaps you’re feeling pretty good about your prospects – business is improving and profits are as high as you’ve ever enjoyed.  Is now the time to go all in? Or is it time to cash your chips and leave the table for new faces?  The story below presents a dilemma faced by many business owners.  Names, industry identifiers and other client specific facts have been changed to protect confidentiality, but the dilemma described below is all too real and immediate for many business owners.

Our friend Frank Mayfield (not his real name) recently approached us with a dilemma.  Frank founded Limbtronics, a medical device manufacturer, thirty years ago to provide leading orthopedic doctors with specialized tools for performing innovative surgeries on damaged joints and ligaments.  Over time, he expanded into manufacturing surgical implants for complete joint replacements.  The business has been good to Frank and in 2013 Limbtronics had a record year with revenue of $28 million and pretax profits of more than $5 million.

Over the past fifteen years, Frank has seen several of his competitors acquired by global orthopedic giants such as Medtronic, Stryker, Smith and Nephew, and others.  He’s been approached a number of times, but never felt the time was … read the rest

Is This The Summer of 2007?

Posted on August 13, 2014

(Originally Published on Axial Forum)

The summer of 2007 was a great moment.  We were enjoying one of the strongest booms in both the debt and equity markets that any of us had experienced in our lifetimes.  Just the sort of markets we’ve been enjoying for the past year or so.  The leveraged lending markets have fully recovered from their low point following the market crash of 2008 and 2009 and volume reached a new high in 2013.  While market activity declined slightly in the first half of 2014 from the prior year, current activity levels remain very high.

The question of the day:  Are we, like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, destined to endlessly repeat this cycle with limited ability to prevent a repeat of the disaster that befell us in 2008-2009.

We’ve just interviewed one of the world’s leading authorities on the private debt markets to help us better understand the current state of the debt markets and what this portends for the level of deal activity going forward.  Randy Schwimmer was a pioneer in developing middle market loan syndication markets in the 1980s, leading the effort for what is now J.P. Morgan and later BNP Paribas.  With a small group of partners he formed Churchill Financial in 2007.  They were successful in raising a $1.2 billion loan fund before the financial crash closed the markets and were left with more than $500 million of dry powder after the crash.  Leveraging this success, they were acquired by Carlyle in 2011 where they began building that firm’s private debt business.

Randy has now left Carlyle to restart his weekly publication covering the private debt markets, which is now called The Lead Left.  This has been a must read for years for anyone who wants to understand this arcane and somewhat opaque, … read the rest