Posted on June 16, 2015
Matt Porzio, Vice President of Strategy & Product Marketing for Intralinks has a unique perspective on the M&A market. Intralinks maintains the leading due diligence secure data room service in the world and, as such, has a window on a high percentage of global M&A activity as deals are being made. Additionally, Intralinks offers a global deal networking service, DealNexus, through which thousands of buyers are provided a window on available offerings, particularly in the middle market. Using this unique position Intralinks publishes quarterly its Deal Flow Predictor gauging future M&A announcements based on the trends its sees in the usage volume of its services. Matt’s observations on the current M&A market are presented below.
The M&A market for 2015 is looking bright – kicking off with a stellar start. According to Thomson Reuters, Q1 2015 saw over $854 billion in activity – the strongest quarter since 2007. Mid-market (deal valuation up to $500 million) deal volume was at $188.4 billion, with a year over year increase of 6.2 percent. From all indications, M&A will continue to be a leading growth strategy for companies, with rich exit multiples.
Multiple deal drivers are contributing to this rich environment, including activist pressure on strategics to tighten up balance sheets/refocus on core business lines. Distressed sectors such as oil & gas are bringing a sizeable number of mid-cap deals to market, and the strongest volume of Q1 cross border activity since 2007. Financial sponsors, with plenty of dry powder, are also out to market in full force. According to Thomson Reuters, Q1 saw $171.3 billion in sponsor-backed deals – again the highest volume since 2007.
With financial sponsors coming in with plenty of dry power, deal-makers entering this space must have deep pockets and creative earn-out mechanisms in place in order stay competitive in any M&A situation. … read the rest
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Posted on April 20, 2015
(Originally Published on Axial Forum)
The answer may surprise you, but first a bit of background. There have been signs of financial bubbles throughout global markets: US price/earnings multiples are relatively high, the Chinese equity market is on a tear notwithstanding signs of an economic slowdown, M&A valuations remain near record levels and so on. But, that’s not the whole story.
What is a bubble anyway, you might ask? The simple answer is a bubble occurs when the price of an asset class is bid far beyond its real economic value, typically as a result of mass hysteria, delusion, or misinformation. Bubbles tend to last longer than rational investors anticipate, which is why most short sellers don’t wind up billionaires.
You don’t have to look hard to find recent examples of burst bubbles. Oil is down more than 50% from its 2014 peak. Its drop was even sharper in 2008-2009 when it dropped 65% from peak to trough. Gold, the sure fire inflation hedge, is down almost 40% from its 2011 peak and could still be in a downtrend. These were big events reflecting what has been called the end of the commodity super cycle. Yet both the global and U. S. economies continue to grow.
Many claim that the U. S. equity markets are in a bubble. Yet there is little evidence of any large-scale delusion that is typically associated with market highs. On an inflation-adjusted basis, the S&P 500 has only now returned to its peak level reached 15 years ago at the height of the Dot Com boom and the inflation-adjusted NASDAQ remains almost 28% below its 2000 peak.
While excess leverage can potentially cause future pain, I would argue that the current M&A leverage and resulting high valuations are a realistic response to the “new normal” of very low … read the rest
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Posted on September 23, 2014
In the next ten years, technology will transform virtually every industry in the world. There will be big winners and big losers. In order to stay competitive, middle market business owners must preempt these changes to their competitive positions and sustainability with smart timely action. Just look at the newspaper publishing industry to see how dramatic the impact can be.
Is the middle market M&A industry exempt from the winds of change? My partners would answer that this is a people business: nothing happens until someone makes a sale. That’s clearly right. Bringing the sale of entrepreneurial business to a successful close involves far more than numbers; human emotions often overrule financial logic. An understanding of psychology is as essential to the success of an intermediary as auctioneering and financial analysis.
The role of the deal professional will not disappear. Nevertheless, the way he or she applies professional skills to reach the ultimate goal of the transaction will be dramatically shaped by the technological revolution now underway in our industry. The successful investment banking firm of the next decade should have access to resources unimaginable to today’s practitioners. In addition to great people skills and financial knowledge, investment bankers will need to be adept at using numerous advanced technologies that will eliminate a great deal of drudgery and that will also accelerate the speed of transaction processes. In that hypercharged environment, the race may well go to the swiftest practitioners with access to the best of data and toolsets.
When I started my investment banking firm in 1985, the most advanced technology was my Compaq luggable (38 pound) computer and a magical program that enabled me to produce both written documents and spreadsheets from a single device. Over time we added desktop computers, a Microsoft network and access to quarterly CD-ROMs with data about … read the rest
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Posted on August 26, 2014
You’ve got to know when to hold ’em
Know when to fold ’em
Know when to walk away
Know when to run
You never count your money
When you’re sittin’ at the table
There’ll be time enough for countin’
When the dealin’s done
If you’re a Baby Boomer, you remember well hearing Kenny Rogers’ iconic hit, The Gambler. If you’re like me, you’ve often wondered how Kenny’s advice might be applied to important business and investment decisions. If you’re a business owner who has survived our generation’s version of the Great Depression, you need good counsel more than ever.
Perhaps you’re feeling pretty good about your prospects – business is improving and profits are as high as you’ve ever enjoyed. Is now the time to go all in? Or is it time to cash your chips and leave the table for new faces? The story below presents a dilemma faced by many business owners. Names, industry identifiers and other client specific facts have been changed to protect confidentiality, but the dilemma described below is all too real and immediate for many business owners.
Our friend Frank Mayfield (not his real name) recently approached us with a dilemma. Frank founded Limbtronics, a medical device manufacturer, thirty years ago to provide leading orthopedic doctors with specialized tools for performing innovative surgeries on damaged joints and ligaments. Over time, he expanded into manufacturing surgical implants for complete joint replacements. The business has been good to Frank and in 2013 Limbtronics had a record year with revenue of $28 million and pretax profits of more than $5 million.
Over the past fifteen years, Frank has seen several of his competitors acquired by global orthopedic giants such as Medtronic, Stryker, Smith and Nephew, and others. He’s been approached a number of times, but never felt the time was … read the rest
Categories: Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Economics, Entrepreneur, Focus Investment Banking LLC, Investment Banking, M&A, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Middle Market, Private Equity, Small Business, Uncategorized, Valuation
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Posted on July 2, 2013
(Click on Picture to Watch Video)
Last month Chairman Bernanke spoke and the markets reacted by dropping more than 5% in a few days. Clearly he must have shared some very bad news for business owners.
Actually not! Coming into the year many observers thought that the federal budget sequester would put the economy at risk of stalling at best and dropping back into recession at worst. Instead the Fed now foresees annual economic growth at 2-2.5% this year, moving to as much as 3.5% by 2015. And it’s the private sector that’s carrying the load, not government programs.
Let me say that again. The Fed now believes that growth is going to accelerate over the next several years. As a result the economy may not need so much artificial stimulus (QE) going forward. The economy is no longer digging a hole; we’re back to building a foundation of real economic growth.
What does this mean for the deal business and for private companies considering M&A or corporate finance transactions? Bottom line: there is going to be much more demand for capital to fund growth. Unless the banks step up to the plate, which we believe is unlikely, this capital must come from private lenders and equity providers.
The good news is that there is a great deal of financial market capital available to meet this need. We just closed a mezzanine financing that gave us a good window into the market’s current appetite. Over the past few years, major investors have made significant financial commitments to entities designed to fill the void left by banks which have abandoned their commercial lending franchise. As a result today there are numerous private debt providers seeking opportunities to provide senior, hybrid and mezzanine capital to private companies. Where equity capital is needed, private equity groups are … read the rest
Categories: Alternative Financing, Asset Based Loans, Bank Credit, Bank Loans, Banking, Banks, Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Commercial Loans, Community Banks, Economic Growth, Economic Stimulus, Economics, Federal Reserve, Fiancial Regulation, Financial Services, Focus Investment Banking, Focus Investment Banking LLC, Focus LLC, M&A, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Monetary Stimulus, Private Equity, Revenue Based Loans, Shadow Banking, Tranche B Financing
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Posted on May 6, 2013
In my last post I wrote about all the economic re-structuring that is taking place. Even though economic growth remains relatively tepid, changes are taking place in the economy that are going to dominate the future when the economy fully adjusts.
Maybe one of the reasons that the economy is growing so slowly is that the economy is going through a transition phase, like in the 1930s, where resources have to be re-allocated and re-structured in order for the economy to take off once again.
That is, resources are mis-located now relative to what is happening in the economy. For the economy to pick up its full head of steam, resources have to be re-aligned to fit what the economy is evolving into…not what it was. Economic policies that attempt to put resources…especially labor…back into the jobs they historically held…just doesn’t work!
Therefore, as I mentioned in the previous post, this re-structuring is creating tremendous opportunities for investment. But, one has to change ones perspective…and not focus on what was. This is why I found the recent article on the future of energy by Clifford Krauss in the New York Times so refreshing. The title to the article, to me, says it all, “By 2023, A Changed World in Energy.”
“If you could close your eyes for just a moment like Rip Van Winkle, and blink them open in 2023, you might see a very different energy world.
Electric cars may be popular. Solar energy could be cheap enough that millions of households and businesses deploy solar panels to generate their power needs. Fossil fuels will probably still dominate, but most trucks and many trains could run on natural gas rather than more polluting diesel. And the United States could be … read the rest
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Posted on March 7, 2013
Business owners time their exits for many reasons: health, retirement planning, availability or lack of family successors, competition, technology change, and many more. Yet, overwhelmingly, the question we are most often asked as a financial advisor to entrepreneurial companies is: “What’s my business worth?”
All things being equal, a rational business owner will presumably choose to sell at a point of optimal value for his or her interest in the firm. For the reasons outlined below, we believe that the next eighteen months may see the highest pricing for good middle market companies in the thirty years I have been in the M&A advisory business.
Historically, the market for mergers and acquisitions is one of the most volatile on the globe. In our experience, the market is very cyclical with three to four years separating peaks and troughs and six or seven years to cover a full cycle. The last bull cycle for M&A peaked in 2006-2007 and the market trough was witnessed in 2009-2010. Moderate improvement was witnessed in 2011 and 2012, with Q4 2012 being particularly strong. 2012 was FOCUS’s best year since 2007.
Source: Barclays and Business Insider
2013 started with a bang with large announced deals for Dell, Heinz, and Virgin Media just to name a few. Many observers predict these are not isolated deals and 2013 will witness a resurgence in M&A activity. While the M&A market could be derailed by a major decline in the equity markets or further chaos in Washington, we believe the odds favor a strong market for sales of middle market companies through sometime in 2014. By then a correction will be overdue and the likelihood of a cyclical bear market in equities may become increasingly high. Generally, a serious decline in the stock markets leads to a precipitous fall in M&A activity.
The … read the rest
Categories: Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Entrepreneur, Focus Investment Banking, Focus LLC, Investment Banking, M&A, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Middle Market, Private Equity, Small Business
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Posted on February 9, 2013
Authored by John Mason
Things are changing in the financial markets. Financial institutions are starting to make money again in mortgages. Money market funds are “flush with cash.” Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs) and Collateralized Loan Obligations (CLOs) are staging a comeback.
And, now there is the $24 billion deal by Michael Dell to take his company private. The interpretation of this transaction that I am most interested in is the one being mentioned in almost all the stories coming out in the press: “This is the largest corporate privatization since the financial crisis and the largest tech buyout ever.”
I am not interested so much in whether or not Dell, Inc. (DELL) is eventually saved. What I am interested in is what is happening in finance. It appears as if money is being mobilized again.
Goodness knows, the Federal Reserve has done just about everything it can to push money out into the economy. Comedians have gotten serious about QE1 and QE2 and QE3 … and QEfinity!
It has only been in the past six months or so that there has been any evidence of funds creeping out of the commercial banking system into other parts of the economy. But now, evidence seems to be growing of money flowing into other parts of the economy. This latest transaction, the creation of a large buyout deal, with the growing possibility that others are thinking about more deals, or even mergers and acquisitions, is very encouraging.
Over the past couple of years, myself and others have wondered about all the cash being built up in the coffers of large corporations. It seemed as if these large organizations were piling up cash hoards in preparation for moving in on less well-off institutions and making deals while the getting was good and while interest … read the rest
Categories: Bank Credit, Bank Loans, Banks, Bonds, Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Commercial Loans, Community Banks, Derivatives, Economic Growth, Economic Stimulus, Economics, Euro, Federal Reserve, Fiancial Regulation, Inequality, Inflation, M&A, M3, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Monetary Policy, Monetary Stimulus, Private Equity, Shadow Banking
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Posted on November 21, 2012
Will 2013 Witness a Mergers and Acquisitions Boom?
The market for mergers and acquisitions is highly cyclical. After more than 25 years in the business we have seen a lot of ups and downs. Certainly the last 5 years witnessed one of the sharpest declines we’ve witnessed.
However, recent developments lead us to believe that we could be quickly moving into a period of very rapid recovery that will take the M&A market to new highs both in terms of deal volume and valuations.
In our last newsletter we presented evidence that valuations for good middle-market companies have approached the heady levels seen in the mid 2000s. Since then we have seen tangible evidence that transaction volume is increasing as well:
• Axial Market is the leading transaction listing service for middle market M&A transactions. Axial recently reported a very strong rise in new deal listings in for October 2012
• Andrew Ross Sorkin recently publish an article in the New York Times entitled More Money Than They Know What To Do With indicating that the largest private equity firms are expected to become much more aggressive in bidding for mega deals to use their “dry powder” of committed, but unexpended investment funds. Sorkin indicates that $200 billion of committed capital must be spent over the next twelve months or returned to investors. As a result he reports that private equity deal volume jumped from $17.1 billion in Q2 2012 to $45 billion in Q3 and that purchase price multiples have jumped in 2012 to 10.6 times EBITDA from 10.3 times EBITDA in 2011.
• In our own practice we have recently experienced a competitive aggressiveness reminiscent of 2005-2007 between private equity firms competing to buy a large building products distributor that suffered tremendously during the crash, but has recently … read the rest
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Posted on October 2, 2012
Recently the Wall Street Journal published an article entitled “The Economy Stole My Retirement”. The subcaption reads “Nest Eggs In Peril For Millions Of Entreprenuers in Their 60s And 70s Who Can’t Sell Their Companies”.
Over the years we have met many business owners who just assumed that if they waited long enough a perfect buyer would come along, offer them a great price for their business and pave the way for a timely and comfortable retirement. According to the Wall Street Journal article “Boomer entrepreneurs grew up believing in the American dream that you start a business and eventually sell it for a good return or pass it on to your kids.”
With stagnant revenues and declining profits the norm for many small businesses since the financial crisis, the sad fact is that for many business owners there just won’t be a buyer. Even worse far too many business owners who receive a serious offer for their firms will make the fatal mistake of assuming that, if they received one good offer, they will receive more and have the luxury of waiting until sale is more convenient or the price is higher. Many of those owners will regret that decision dearly.
After three+ years of economic recovery, we are at a point in the financial cycle that may soon provide many Baby Boomer business owners with the best opportunity they may see for selling their businesses at a good valuation. For good companies in many industries, earnings have in fact recovered significantly. In favored sectors such as aerospace manufacturing and various technology disciplines, buyers are willing to pay multiples for top performers that compare favorably with those of the mid 2000s when large middle market firms routinely saw offers in high single-digit or even double digit multiples of EBITDA.
Memories … read the rest