Is This The Summer of 2007?

Posted on August 13, 2014

(Originally Published on Axial Forum)

The summer of 2007 was a great moment.  We were enjoying one of the strongest booms in both the debt and equity markets that any of us had experienced in our lifetimes.  Just the sort of markets we’ve been enjoying for the past year or so.  The leveraged lending markets have fully recovered from their low point following the market crash of 2008 and 2009 and volume reached a new high in 2013.  While market activity declined slightly in the first half of 2014 from the prior year, current activity levels remain very high.

The question of the day:  Are we, like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, destined to endlessly repeat this cycle with limited ability to prevent a repeat of the disaster that befell us in 2008-2009.

We’ve just interviewed one of the world’s leading authorities on the private debt markets to help us better understand the current state of the debt markets and what this portends for the level of deal activity going forward.  Randy Schwimmer was a pioneer in developing middle market loan syndication markets in the 1980s, leading the effort for what is now J.P. Morgan and later BNP Paribas.  With a small group of partners he formed Churchill Financial in 2007.  They were successful in raising a $1.2 billion loan fund before the financial crash closed the markets and were left with more than $500 million of dry powder after the crash.  Leveraging this success, they were acquired by Carlyle in 2011 where they began building that firm’s private debt business.

Randy has now left Carlyle to restart his weekly publication covering the private debt markets, which is now called The Lead Left.  This has been a must read for years for anyone who wants to understand this arcane and somewhat opaque, … read the rest

November 2012 Capital Matters Newsletter

Posted on November 21, 2012

 Will 2013 Witness a Mergers and Acquisitions Boom?

The market for mergers and acquisitions is highly cyclical. After more than 25 years in the business we have seen a lot of ups and downs. Certainly the last 5 years witnessed one of the sharpest declines we’ve witnessed.

Source: Pitchbook

However, recent developments lead us to believe that we could be quickly moving into a period of very rapid recovery that will take the M&A market to new highs both in terms of deal volume and valuations.

In our last newsletter we presented evidence that valuations for good middle-market companies have approached the heady levels seen in the mid 2000s.  Since then we have seen tangible evidence that transaction volume is increasing as well:

•    Axial Market is the leading transaction listing service for middle market M&A transactions.  Axial recently reported a very strong rise in new deal listings in for October 2012

Source: Axialmarket

•    Andrew Ross Sorkin recently publish an article in the New York Times entitled More Money Than They Know What To Do With indicating that the largest private equity firms are expected to become much more aggressive in bidding for mega deals to use their “dry powder” of committed, but unexpended investment funds.  Sorkin indicates that $200 billion of committed capital must be spent over the next twelve months or returned to investors.  As a result he reports that private equity deal volume jumped from $17.1 billion in Q2 2012 to $45 billion in Q3 and that purchase price multiples have jumped in 2012 to 10.6 times EBITDA from 10.3 times EBITDA in 2011.

•    In our own practice we have recently experienced a competitive aggressiveness reminiscent of 2005-2007 between private equity firms competing to buy a large building products distributor that suffered tremendously during the crash, but has recently … read the rest

Categories: Banking, Investment Banking, Mergers and Acquisitions, Middle Market, Monthly Newsletters, Private Equity

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