Posted on May 16, 2013
Michael Drury, Chief Economist, McVean Trading and Investments LLC – Reprinted with Author’s Permission
Perhaps the question we are asked most frequently is when things will get back to normal, meaning in most investors’ eyes the way they were before Lehman. Unfortunately, our answer is “That bird has flown” and we are now dealing with, and will continue to deal with for many years, a very different environment. The mainstay of that difference is a lack of trust between those that have money to invest and those that want to use it for risky undertakings, and, in particular, a lack of trust in the banking system that used to intermediate between these two groups. The result is a glut of savings available to “safe” investments driving risk-free yields to very low levels. However, the central banks, by buying bonds and manipulating long term interest rates lower, are introducing a significant risk of capital loss into even “risk-free” assets. Investors are both moving and driven out the risk and yield curves, and returns on riskier investments are falling. The decline in returns at the precise time many investors want to start spending investment income has pushed up prices for proven existing income flows. Meanwhile, a combination of distrust and a reduced pool of money that will wait long periods before income is produced have generated fewer green-field investments in physical plant and equipment, resulting in a slower potential growth path for the economy.
We are neither monetarist nor Keynesian, but rather institutionalist and a storyteller. We see the current situation as the culmination of a long path where growing reliance on banks and the central bank to maintain economic growth has run aground. Both re-establishing trust and balance in the old system or building a new one will take time – likely many years … read the rest
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