Will 2013 See Record Valuations for Middle Market Business Sales?

Posted on March 7, 2013

Business owners time their exits for many reasons: health, retirement planning, availability or lack of family successors, competition, technology change, and many more. Yet, overwhelmingly, the question we are most often asked as a financial advisor to entrepreneurial companies is: “What’s my business worth?”

All things being equal, a rational business owner will presumably choose to sell at a point of optimal value for his or her interest in the firm. For the reasons outlined below, we believe that the next eighteen months may see the highest pricing for good middle market companies in the thirty years I have been in the M&A advisory business.

Historically, the market for mergers and acquisitions is one of the most volatile on the globe. In our experience, the market is very cyclical with three to four years separating peaks and troughs and six or seven years to cover a full cycle. The last bull cycle for M&A peaked in 2006-2007 and the market trough was witnessed in 2009-2010. Moderate improvement was witnessed in 2011 and 2012, with Q4 2012 being particularly strong. 2012 was FOCUS’s best year since 2007.

Source: Barclays and Business Insider

2013 started with a bang with large announced deals for Dell, Heinz, and Virgin Media just to name a few. Many observers predict these are not isolated deals and 2013 will witness a resurgence in M&A activity. While the M&A market could be derailed by a major decline in the equity markets or further chaos in Washington, we believe the odds favor a strong market for sales of middle market companies through sometime in 2014. By then a correction will be overdue and the likelihood of a cyclical bear market in equities may become increasingly high. Generally, a serious decline in the stock markets leads to a precipitous fall in M&A activity.

The … read the rest

Categories: Business Acquisition, Business Sale, Entrepreneur, Focus Investment Banking, Focus LLC, Investment Banking, M&A, Mergers, Mergers and Acquisitions, Middle Market, Private Equity, Small Business

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Coming M&A Boom Will Not Cure Real Economy’s Ills

Posted on March 3, 2013

Authored by John Mason – Originally Published at Seeking Alpha – Reprinted with Authors Permission

Behind almost all of the economic problems we are now facing is the need for economic restructuring. The world needs to move on and politicians and others are fighting to keep things as they are.

To me, this is one of the reasons why the common liberal/Keynesian solution to our current difficulties is more government spending, more stimulus. The common refrain is to push things right back into where they were. Push people back into construction jobs; push workers back into the auto plants; and push the untrained into information technology. Unfortunately, the world has changed. We cannot keep trying to push people back into the jobs they once held, or, push people into jobs they have not been trained for.

Everyone is excited about the boom in mergers and acquisitions. I have been among those, like James Less, Vice Chairman of JPMorgan Chase & Co. who said, “The Goldilocks era of post-crisis M&A has never been an if, but a when.”

For two years or more, I have been writing that the larger, better off companies, the larger money managers, are just waiting for the right environment to begin the acquisition binge. In terms of high profile the Dell (DELL) deal kind of kicked things off.

In the past two weeks, there have been at least four major deals announced. These have included the Dell buyout; the Comcast (CMCSA)(CMCSK) acquisition of GE’s (GE) stake in NBC Universal; the acquisition of American Airlines (AAMRQ.PK) by US Air (LCC); the Berkshire (BRK.A)(BRK.B)/3G Capital acquisition of H. J. Heinz Co. (HNZ); and the Liberty Global (LBTYA)(LBTYK)(LBTYB) … read the rest

Damn Those Shadow Banks!

Posted on March 3, 2013

Authored by John Mason – Originally Published at Seeking Alpha – Reprinted with Authors Permission

What do we do about the shadow banks or, more politely, alternative finance sources? David Reilly brings us some of the regulatory dilemma in the Wall Street Journal, “Too Big to Fail Casts a Very Long Shadow.”

The question is, “Should the U. S. Government look to backstop even more of the financial system than it already does?” The financial system is expanding. The financial system has already expanded.

Reilly writes that “the shadow-banking system is estimated at between $10 trillion to about $24 million, depending upon the activities included.” According to Federal Reserve System, the commercial banking system holds a little more than $13 trillion in assets.

According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the total of all assets held by all FDIC insured institutions is a little more than $14 trillion. According to Gary Gorton, Yale economist, in his latest book, “Misunderstanding Financial Crises: Why We Don’t See Them Coming,” the shadow banking system totaled something around $10 trillion to $14 trillion in the summer of 2008, just before the financial crisis started.

In June, 2008, the assets of the commercial banking system totaled just over $11 trillion; assets in all FDIC insured institutions totaled just over $13 trillion. Alternative financial institutions are something to deal with. And, alternative financial institutions are attracting more and more attention.

The issue about shadow banking is one about systemic financial collapse. And, in other words, as Federal Reserve Governor Daniel Tarullo stated before the Senate Banking Committee last week, the regulation of this part of the financial system is the issue “we should be debating in the context of too big to fail.”

Reilly writes, “While banks have faced tighter oversight, the shadow banking market remains a … read the rest